The first Mexican I met in Moscow was in an elevator. We nodded at each other, that staid lingua franca of the international elevator, a nod that says, “isn’t this a small distance between us, you and I?”

“What do you think,” I said. “Can Mexico beat Germany?”

“HAHAHAHA,” he laughed (in all caps). “No, but it’s nice to explore Russia.

” I don’t know where that elevator Mexican is now, but I suspect he was one of the many thousands of El Tri fans celebrating throughout Moscow last night, basking in the glow of a truly unexpected victory, the first great shock of this World Cup.

This was, indeed, the thing, the unexpectedness of it all. There is a rich recent history of defending world champions fizzling out four years later (France in 2002, Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014), but it felt somehow inconceivable it would happen to the Germans, who haven’t failed to reach a World Cup semifinal this century.

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That was fun! El Tri conceded a late wondergoal, but otherwise, they were well in control during this game. Chucky Lozano impressed yet again, while the midfield of Hector Herrera, Andres Guardado and Miguel Layun dominated the game.

Mexico hasn’t completely clinched a place in the Round of 16, but they’re likely through. It would take a true disaster scenario to knock them out. Even if the result in Sweden vs. Germany doesn’t help them, Mexico can probably rotate in their final group game and start planning for the knockout rounds. South Korea, meanwhile, needs a Germany win and a set of miracles to go through. Their World Cup is likely coming to an end

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